How The Unusual Season Redefined the Conventional NFL Coach of the Year Blueprint.
Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.
Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the biggest resurgence receives the prize. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or just the biggest upset.
However this year's field is distinctly different. The group of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners fading and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. In an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.
Below is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.
5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record
Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.
Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.
Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.
During a ordinary year, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a typical year!
Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. However he falls short here.
4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4
Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.
What's more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.
Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.
After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.
The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.
3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record
Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.
Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of peers.
Still
